Four years ago, New Jersey voters rejected Mr. Trump’s re-election bid by a decisive 16-point margin. This year, in a state where Democrats dominate and outnumber Republicans by 900,000 voters, the gap narrowed to just five points.
Despite Mr. Trump garnering the same 1.9 million votes he received in 2020, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, saw a significant drop in voter turnout, losing 500,000 votes compared to President Biden’s 2020 performance. While Ms. Harris managed to win New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes, the rightward shift was evident, particularly in key counties like Passaic and Hudson, which saw dramatic swings in favor of Mr. Trump.
Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, called the results a “sobering moment,” warning his party not to dismiss them as an anomaly. “We need to engage voters and ensure they understand our vision for the future of New Jersey,” he said.
With Democrats facing a tighter margin in a state long considered a stronghold, the 2025 gubernatorial race is already taking shape. Democratic candidates, including Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, must contend with the implications of decreased turnout in urban centers and frustration among voters of color.
Mr. Baraka attributed part of the Democratic slump to gender and racial bias, noting, “We’re still in the stone age in terms of valuing women, particularly women of color.” However, he also called on Democrats to offer a stronger economic message. “People want clear pathways to the middle class. We need to articulate that.”
Mr. Fulop echoed concerns about the state’s Democratic machine, saying, “The party here is stale and lazy. We need to reinvigorate our approach if we want to succeed in 2025.”
For Republicans, Mr. Trump’s victory and the narrowing Democratic margin signal potential gains in both the gubernatorial race and state legislative contests. State Senator Jon Bramnick, a center-right Republican, believes the results indicate an opening for moderate candidates. “Trump is still a divisive figure here, but a center-right message could resonate,” he said.
Jack Ciattarelli, who came within three points of defeating Governor Murphy in 2021, sees Mr. Trump’s victory as a boost to Republican enthusiasm. His strategist, Chris Russell, emphasized the potential for Trump’s national win to energize conservative voters across New Jersey, where GOP registration has grown by 100,000 since 2021.
Meanwhile, Bill Spadea, a conservative radio host and Trump ally, is also vying for the GOP nomination, arguing that Trump’s policies resonate with suburban and working-class voters.
The shift in voter sentiment could have profound consequences for New Jersey’s legislature, where Democrats currently hold sizable majorities. Strategists are closely watching suburban districts, where Republican candidates hope to leverage Trump’s win to flip key seats.
Amol Sinha, director of the ACLU of New Jersey, cautioned that the rise in Trump’s popularity could exacerbate political polarization. “There’s a growing right-wing movement here, and we need to be vigilant about protecting democratic norms,” he said.
Social justice advocates, meanwhile, have raised concerns about the Democratic Party’s ability to mobilize Black and Latino voters. Henal Patel of the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice criticized a lack of outreach to communities of color, saying, “These voters need to feel heard and supported.”
The 2025 gubernatorial race and legislative contests are shaping up to be some of the most contentious in recent memory. Democrats must address declining urban turnout and unify around a cohesive economic message, while Republicans seek to capitalize on Trump’s momentum to win statewide and down-ballot races for the first time in decades.
As strategists from both parties analyze the data, the results of Trump’s victory are clear: New Jersey’s political landscape has shifted, and both parties have much at stake as they prepare for the next battle.
