New Jersey’s Latino communities witnessed a seismic political shift in the 2024 presidential election, with Donald Trump significantly improving his performance compared to previous campaigns. Now that all votes have been counted, the data reveals a dramatic erosion of Democratic strongholds in the state’s majority-Hispanic towns.
Across 29 towns with a combined population of 1.1 million, Trump narrowed the Democratic advantage from a +66 margin in 2012 to just +20 in 2024. Notably, some towns that were once safe Democratic territory flipped Republican, highlighting Trump’s growing appeal among Latino voters.
In Fairview, a Bergen County town where Latinos make up a substantial portion of the population, the results were striking. Fairview shifted from D+45 in 2012 to R+5 in 2024, marking the first Republican presidential victory there in modern history.
Union City, often called the heart of Hudson County’s Latino political base, saw Trump quadruple his 2016 vote total, increasing his share from 18% to 40%. Similarly, in Perth Amboy, Trump’s support surged from 16% in 2016 to 44% in 2024. While Vice President Kamala Harris ultimately carried these towns, the shrinking margins were indicative of a broader trend statewide. Harris won New Jersey with 52% of the vote to Trump’s 46%, a stark contrast to the 55%-41% Democratic win in 2016.
The most dramatic shift came in Passaic, a city where 73% of the population identifies as Latino. Trump captured 52% of the vote, a massive leap from the 23% he won in 2016, making him the first Republican to carry the city in decades. His victory in Passaic helped him secure Passaic County by 5,800 votes—the first time a GOP presidential candidate has won the county in more than 30 years.
Trump’s gains were not limited to urban centers. In Victory Gardens, a small Latino-majority town in Morris County, his share of the vote rose from 19% in 2016 to 38% in 2024.
The shift in New Jersey mirrored a national trend, with Trump gaining ground among Latino voters across key states. In Texas, Pennsylvania, and even deep-blue California, frustrations over inflation, the economy, and immigration policies drove many Latino voters to reconsider their traditional Democratic alignment. Trump also flipped Florida’s Miami-Dade County, a majority-Latino stronghold that voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
These results underscore the growing importance of nuanced outreach to Latino voters, who are far from a monolithic bloc. For Democrats, the diminishing margins in New Jersey’s Hispanic towns signal a need to recalibrate their approach, addressing not just immigration reform but also pocketbook issues and cultural values.
As the GOP celebrates its historic gains in Latino communities, both parties are now reassessing strategies for engaging this critical and diverse demographic ahead of 2028. The inroads Trump made in traditionally Democratic strongholds like New Jersey could reshape the political map for years to come.
