More than 4.3 million residents of New Jersey participated in this year’s general election, marking a 7% decrease in turnout compared to the previous presidential election four years ago. While the state has yet to finalize its numbers, preliminary results suggest that turnout played a decisive role in the outcome, with the Democratic candidate narrowly defeating their Republican opponent by about 6 percentage points, equating to a margin of approximately 250,000 votes. This is a significant drop from the 400,000-vote margin seen in the previous election.
An analysis of county-reported results reveals that turnout declined in every county compared to 2020. Four counties saw decreases exceeding 10%: two favoring the Democratic candidate and two leaning Republican.
Experts attribute the reduced turnout to the absence of all-mail voting, which boosted participation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. That year, mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters, resulting in record-breaking participation. Over 90% of voters used mail-in ballots, a level of convenience that likely contributed to the highest turnout in decades.
Despite fewer voters this year, long lines at polling places during early voting and Election Day puzzled many. Election officials cited the introduction of new voting equipment as a potential cause for delays. Many voters, particularly those who only participate in presidential elections, required assistance navigating the new system, which may have added to the confusion.
Additionally, early in-person voting saw a sharp rise, with over 1.1 million people voting at designated sites—more than four times the early voting participation seen in previous years.
The turnout decline particularly impacted Democratic candidates. Analysts noted a significant drop in Democratic support compared to 2020. While Republican votes increased slightly, the overall decline in voter enthusiasm appeared to hurt Democrats more.
The Democratic candidate’s margin of victory was the smallest for the party in a presidential election in New Jersey this century. This year’s result also marked one of the most significant swings toward the Republican candidate nationally, second only to New York, according to election data.
Several factors may have contributed to this shift, including economic concerns like inflation, frustration with the current administration, and broader demographic trends. Additionally, third-party candidates made modest gains, particularly in areas with concentrated communities frustrated by U.S. foreign policy, which may have drawn votes away from the Democratic ticket.
Political analysts warn that New Jersey Democrats cannot rely solely on their voter registration advantage in future elections, especially if turnout remains a challenge. The upcoming gubernatorial race in 2025 is expected to be a litmus test for both parties, with Republicans facing internal debates over their identity in the Trump era.
“The results underscore the need for both parties to engage voters more effectively,” one political expert said. “The question for New Jersey Republicans is whether they will embrace their traditional moderate identity or move further toward Trump’s influence.”
As New Jersey grapples with these shifts, the state’s political landscape could see further realignment in the coming years.
