North Caldwell, NJ – Once a Republican stronghold, this affluent New Jersey suburb continues to illustrate the complex political realignment taking place across the United States. With 77% of its population holding college degrees and a median household income surpassing $200,000, North Caldwell epitomizes the high-income, highly educated demographic that has played a pivotal role in recent presidential elections.
In the 2024 contest, North Caldwell swung back slightly toward the Republican column, delivering a narrow R+2 result in favor of the GOP presidential candidate. The shift comes after the suburb broke for Democrats in 2020 with a D+5 margin, marking the first time in decades the area turned blue.
A Decade of Transformation
In 2012, North Caldwell was a Republican fortress, voting R+24 in that year’s presidential election. By 2016, however, Donald Trump’s candidacy narrowed the GOP margin significantly, reducing it to just R+3. This shift was driven in part by discomfort among college-educated voters with Trump’s rhetoric and policy priorities.
The 2020 election saw Democrats gaining further ground, winning the town by 5 percentage points, largely due to Joe Biden’s appeal to suburban moderates and a backlash against Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2024, the slim R+2 margin suggests that while Republicans have made inroads among wealthier suburbanites concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty, the town remains a highly competitive battleground.
Demographics Driving the Vote
North Caldwell’s 32% Italian-American population reflects a cultural connection that often leans conservative on issues such as public safety and education. However, the town’s high rate of college-educated voters has traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party’s focus on healthcare, climate change, and gun control.
The affluent nature of the community, with a median household income exceeding $200,000, also means tax policy is a key concern. The Republican candidate’s promise of tax cuts for high earners may have resonated with voters here, contributing to the slight shift back to the GOP.
A Microcosm of Suburban America
North Caldwell’s political journey mirrors broader national trends. Across the country, affluent, college-educated suburbs have shifted away from the Republican Party in the past decade, driven by changing priorities among voters on issues like reproductive rights, diversity, and climate action. However, economic concerns and Republican outreach efforts appear to be pulling some voters back.
With its mix of historical Republican leanings and increasing Democratic competitiveness, North Caldwell is a bellwether for the challenges both parties face in suburban America.
As the final votes are tallied nationwide, the lessons from North Caldwell are clear: the suburbs remain up for grabs, and candidates who can strike the right balance on cultural and economic issues will likely determine the outcome of future elections.
